x
husar
#
Painful stretch.
 It's been some time since I wrote anything in here. First post this year and it is February already. 2008 has started for me with such a bad streak that's simply hard to believe.

Right from the start. New year's eve I got very sick and had to stay home. Few days later our office was flooded and even now is not fully restored, we still operate from a temporary facility. About a week later my car, with me in it, was t-boned by a large pick up truck, lending me in a hospital for a few days. Two days after I had left hospital, there was some snow. Somehow I managed to slip, fall and dislocate my shoulder. Back to hospital. Trading has been in shambles, the worst period I had in ages. And scores of smaller calamities.

Does it mean this whole year is going to be down the drain? Or, perhaps, all the bad events piled up at once and are done with, leaving nothing but smooth sailing for the rest of the year? I hope the second possibility will prevail.

Financial markets in general have been very volatile, which should be welcome by traders, since the moves are large and fast. One has to be, of course, correct on the direction in order to profit. That's another matter altogether...



 

This here is a trade I initiated at close on Friday. Long USD-JPY at 106.57, looking for 110 and risking about 170 pips or so. Looks to me, there is going to plenty of volatility to go around across all JPY crosses. I'm going to give it a week or 2 and see what happens.

Barring any new catastrophes, I should be returning to this blog on more regular basis.
Husar

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#
 Time to close 2007. It's a pity, really, as I'm sorry to see it go. Why? Frankly, that's been my best trading year ever. Most of the money was made in summer, during JPY run as well as large AUD and NZD sell off at the same time. I was fortunate enough to be on the right side of those moves and caught most of them. I can only hope that 2008 will be that good.

Friend of mine rented out a restaurant for a New Year's party, so that's where I'm meeting 2008. Most of the people I know should be there before they go back to work up north. Should be fun, as it normally is with this crowd.

We updated our website. Here is the link.

http://www.spectrumforex.com/weeklycomments/12302007.html

Last week was very slow for me. The trade I mentioned in the last post was adjusted a little bit, with different entry and made a few pips. Highlight of the week.


 

This here looks promising to me, GBP-CHF. Seems to be ready for a serious rebound, but not just yet. I plan to start buying it in small chunks until I see a daily bullish candle. By “bullish candle” I simply mean and up closing day. That's when I want to open a large position and try to catch 500 pips or so, with a risk of 200-300 pips.


 

Since I'm using a daily chart, it should be understood, this might take a few weeks.
Have fun during festivities and Happy New Year!

Husar.

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#
 I'm very fortunate that my shopping was done some time ago. Most of it over the web. Had to go by the mall earlier and it was unbelievable. Traffic jam starts couple of miles away, rain is coming down by the buckets and looked like not a space to be found in the parking lot. Hardly an uplifting start of holidays. Not my problem.

Our website has been updated and here is the link.

http://www.spectrumforex.com/weeklycomments/12232007.html


In my last post I mentioned a developing trade opportunity in AUD-NZD. Here is what happened.


 

My entry was not the best. Market gapped up on the open and I was in at 1.1273. Regardless, it worked out not too bad. My 1.1350 target was reached fairly fast for 77 pips. Nice little trade.
I don't think there is going to be much happening in the markets over next few days. Here is a possible trade that can make a few pips.


 

Should the price move above 1.6640 I'm going to cancel this order.
My head is really not in the charts. I've entered relaxation period and my plan is to enjoy it for next few days.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

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#
 Well, I did it. I went to see the 4x Made Easy seminar, or rather very pushy sales pitch.
It started on rather funny note. As I walked into the hotel, there was a large sign set up in the area of exhibit halls, saying “Psychic fair- palm and tarot reading”. It was right next to 4XME people table, as these events were in adjacent rooms. I started to laugh out loud drawing furtive looks from people.

Turnout was small, less than 20 people, while the competing “Psychic fair” was packed.
Speaker said he doesn't work for the company but is a user of the software and is getting compensated for doing these presentations. Fair enough. Since the audience was so small, he encouraged questions. He was stressing how much money can be made using the software, always using maximum leverage of either 100:1 or 200:1 or even 400:1 with some brokers. For example, a 300 pips move a day (always using High-Low figures), would have produced a return of as much as 1200% ! Impressive. I pointed out that using 400:1 leverage and a move going only 25 pips against you wipes out your account. “Do you recommend using maximum margin ?” I asked. “Well, not really” was the answer and proceeded to a function in the software which calculated the stop/ loss and target for each trade. “A billion dollars worth of technology is behind this function alone”, was his statement. Later on from some screen shots he presented it became apparent, that it was some fixed percentage of ATR. Nothing new there.
He continued to use extreme examples, like the move in GBP-USD on Wednesday, I think, a week ago, with a range of about 350 pips. Since the software gives signals by crossing lines,AND you have to wait for LARGE line separation, there was no way to catch the top and then get out at the bottom. One probably could pull out some nice profits there but nowhere near the extremes he was stating. I mentioned it, at which point he became irritated and suggested to keep the questions till after the presentation, because “we were running out of time”.
He finished his speech saying that this was an “opportunity of a lifetime” and we would be making “a great mistake by walking away without software”. His tone was really condescending and rather unpleasant.
If you bought the software on the spot, you would get a 2 day live course for free. Otherwise those classes are about 3000 dollars. To farther your education you can also attend “advanced workshop” for additional 6000 dollars. I wonder why? Supposedly the software comes with full tutorial, what do you need the classes for?
This whole “seminar” was an ultra high pressure sales pitch, quite distasteful. I didn't stick around for the speakers personal tips “To the first 5 buyers”.
At any rate, my personal feeling is, that the software itself, if used with great deal of discipline and diligence, can be profitable. The same can be said about any other trading tool. There is, however, one serious weakness there. You can only view about 20 periods of data back. That means a month on daily setting. In other words, you can only see signals and potential trades for that extremely limited time. I don't understand why they don't extend the look back time to say 500 bars. That should be easy to do, for an outfit which employs “A billion dollar worth of technology”. It also would make the software more convincing to people, if indeed it works as advertised. One of their representative called me during the week, asking why I hadn't bought it? I told him that if I see records of 100 consecutive trades, and the results are good, I'll buy it. He told me that was not currently possible. End of story.

We updated our website and you can see it here
http://www.spectrumforex.com/weeklycomments/12162007.html


My own trading was O.K. but nothing spectacular. CHF continued it's weakness, which I think will continue for another week or two. Personal highlight was a a nice trade in GBP-CHF.



 

We also had a decent trade in USD-CHF. After Friday's large moves it's hard to say if some kind of correction is in order. We will have to wait and see, but wherever we don't look, dollar looks bullish here. Some opportunities may lay in non USD crosses. Here is one that doesn't look too bad.



 

This might be good for about 80 pips.
Time to do the dreaded dead- go to the mall. I shiver at the very thought, but must do it.
Husar

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#
I will check it out.
 Anybody who lives in USA and has an interest in Forex trading must have heard about these people – “Forex made easy”. They advertise their seminars on TV and sell very expensive software which is supposed to make you money. The web is full of negative testimonials about them, the software and all aspects of their business.
I myself went to one of those sales pitches in summer 2003. I saw the infomercial and was simply shocked, as that had been the first time I was a witness to such fully flanged Forex product campaign. I was not impressed with the whole presentation.

Well, now, 4 years later they are hosting one of those gatherings within 2 miles of my house. It takes place early morning on Sunday, so I decided to go and check it out. What the hell, it's not like I'm going to buy anything. Should be couple of hours of cheap entertainment. I'll describe what happened next time I update these pages.

We updated our website. You can see it here.
http://www.spectrumforex.com/weeklycomments/12092007.html


Meanwhile, my own trading has been less than inspiring. Last week I made a bunch trades which resulted in small losses or even smaller gains. Like this one here.



 It has been like that all week long. Hopefully next one will be better. Since I'm bullish USD, I'm looking for trades to go long against especially European currencies.


Husar

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