moneySummer is here! Yes! Fine weather, in very comfortable upper 70’s ranges.
Feels great! When you are up most of the nights, nice weather during day has a very soothing effect. On me at least. Especially when things are not going according to plan, it’s nice to see sunshine instead of rain coming down by the buckets. Or barrels.
And things have not gone right. My views on AUD and NZD were pretty much torpedoed by the markets. Well, maybe not completely. AUD is showing a very unexpected strength. Unexpected to me, that is. I’m sure some people are happy with the way week has turned out. NZD still doesn’t concern me all that much. Bigger question is will the GBP and EUR follow?
So far they haven’t that’s why I think that the move in AUD is part of a large topping formation. My opinions are based on weekly charts, where 200-300 pips move is just a ripple, annoyance. When you take it into everyday trading, however, it becomes a pain in the ass.
Not all was that bad, as there was a good trade in GBP-JPY earlier in the week, but most of my trading was up and down, without much gain. For most part just spinning wheels and getting nowhere.
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Here is what I mean that 200-300 pips move against you is just a nuisance when you derive your views from really long term chart. Back in January looked like EUR-CAD was topping and was getting ready for a sell off. I went short at first recognizable break and then had to go through uncomfortable draw down. Eventually EUR-CAD dropped like a rock and keeps falling. I closed halve the position about 10 days ago for some 500 pips profit and the rest of it on the close of Friday for 841 pips.
Here is the snapshot of the trade right before I closed it on Friday.
Here it’s the same chart right after I liquidated it. The position was so old, that the platform didn’t maintained the SELL marker when the position was closed, hence 2 snapshots.
In principle, the weekly chart was right, but was it really tradable? Matter of opinion and personal preferences. In my case, the position was small relative to the size of my accounts, and I have enough other things going on day to day bases, that I could allow to let it linger for so long. Surely enough, it’s not for everybody, although people who don’t have time to trade on day to day bases might well commit a couple of hours over the weekend and try these kind of trades without much maintenance.
Now, on a more inspiring note I have to get ready for a nice dinner on the waterfront. Time to go..
Husar.
