moneyNormally at this time of year one is slowly thinking about spring returning. Granted, it rains more often then not and nights are still long but spring appears to be just around the corner. Well, not this year. Much to a surprise of most people here, winter cracked it’s whip once again. It didn’t last very long and had no effect on me, but it caused some damage and confusion. There were scores of accidents. Spectacular car pile up took place on I-90 right on a viaduct in mountains. You may have seen it on CNN. That’s quite a nasty place to be stack in 50+ car jam. You can’t get off the road! Fortunately there were no fatalities.
There were however plenty of “fatalities” on the Forex front. Anybody who was short JPY suffered substantially. Also, those who were long NZD didn’t feel very well. Kiwi proved to be ripe enough to fall. I’m rather surprised with the speed of that fall but understandably happy. I had one trade riding there ,
NZD-CHF and it worked out as planned, hitting both targets.
Another cross that reached both targets was , of course, NZD-JPY. I had no position in this pair, but it’s worth taking a look at.
Other NZD crosses did good also, with EUR-NZD reaching both targets , GBP-NZD and USD-NZD both reached first target. That is not bad for only one week of action with analysis based on daily charts.
An update has been posted on our corporate website and is accessible via this link
I don’t think it’s over for Kiwi. My attention moves over to USD-NZD as I think that USD is about to get stronger across the board. For this USD-NZD reversal to be convincing longer term turning point I’d like to see the price to go down another 100 pips or so to about 0.6750. I don’t want to just jump in here, but rather to look at smaller time frames, notably 1H and make a decision Sunday afternoon my time. If 0.6750 is reached 0.6450-0.6550 would be next longer term target.
In the light of last week’s move one would like to think that the move will continue in a nice swift manner. Well, that happens only 25-30% of the time. With the 0.6750 being a key level here what should one do? Jump in there and ride out potential correction or wait for better entry after a correction which might never happen? Should the correction happen, the trade, even if a winner, might easily take 6-10 weeks. Nobody knows that and this is what makes trading so interesting. Perpetual, fluid puzzle. Before any of that takes place 0.6750 must be reached first, but it’s good to have a plan, even if it’s conditional. So, for now, I’m looking to get in for a ride to about 0.6750
and then we’ll see…
This nice lady invited me out to dinner tonight. She wants to go to Outback Steakhouse. Fruit salad should be on the menu.
Husar
